Last December, City Transport & Traffic Magazine’s (CiTTi) resident columnist, Keith Mortimer, surveyed the global transport industry ahead of Donald Trump’s second term as US president. Read on to see what impacts he foresaw Trump’s tariffs having on the global transport industry…
It’s officially awards season! The winners’ success stories set shining examples for the wise spending of the UK’s trillion-pound budget. It’s a tough call; growing the cake while slicing it to sufficiently satisfy demands for mobility, stabilise the climate, rescue public health and more. When balancing the books while tackling the root causes of first-world woes, a trillion doesn’t go nearly as far as it used to.
But where did it always go? World peace? This is a job for Tariff Man, as the POTUS-to-be christened himself. “The most beautiful word in the world!” said Mr Trump. “Tariffs can fix anything!” After alarming the Chinese, Mexicans and then everybody, he shared a seismic idea: abolish the evil income tax! Well, after contributing so little of it himself, perhaps he’s showing true fellow-feeling for hard-working citizens.
Making debts great again
There’s an ominous first-day promise: New York congestion charging will be no more. Road usage charging (RUC) has its adherents and should remain a state-level issue. But a war on wokery might buckle city finances, while tariff-driven hyper-inflation eats up tax gains.
Protectors of the federal purse fear a US$2tn “efficiency” raid, alarming the guardians of the environment, active travel and clean air. Federal budget watchers have warned that the US national debt already stands at US$36tn. Adding new pledges worth US$15tn would surely be ill-advised.
Just two years ago, political leaders in the UK discovered how much grief unfunded tax cuts can cause to a new government. This year’s election mantra, “No tax rises for working people”, was balanced by a Budget targeting almost every other source of revenue. The notable avoidance of pain to motorists sends mixed messages about sustainable transport. There’s a £3bn-plus freeze on fuel duties for car drivers, but little surprise about inflation-busting bus fares and rail tickets.
Innovation evidently takes more time. Despite proven long-term benefits, and bucking the trend elsewhere, there’s no hint of support to widen RUC take-up. In ditching the £20m Intelligent Traffic Management Fund, the minister said the department was “pleased by how the sector had responded to the opportunity.”
We’ve been here before. In funding their war chests, our forefathers began the beautiful fiscal debate some 300 years ago. Those years have encompassed industrial revolution, conflicts, pestilences and accelerating climate change.
In 1803 prime minister William Pitt profited from hefty trade tariffs to sustain England’s global economic, political and military power. But it wasn’t enough. Through the 18th century the national debt had soared, funding European and imperial conquests. Now, dealing with American rebels and prepping for Napoleonic wars took a higher toll. Malt grain taxes had raised over 10% of the national wealth but almost led to the end of the union with Scotland. So, Pitt coined a new tax in 1803. The richest paid two old pence in the pound in a new-fangled ‘income tax’. Controversy ensued. The hated innovation was banished amid threats of revolution.
The century-old national debt hung on and grew to £1bn – twice the GDP of the richest nation
on planet earth! Prime minister Robert Peel justified the Income Tax Act of 1842 as a ‘temporary’ measure. The rich paid out, seven old pence per pound. Debts mounted. In the Crimea, costly action to quell a Russian landgrab sealed the taxpayer’s fate. Income tax became permanent, and debts swelled through two world wars.
Where credit is due
The territorial ambitions of despots resonate down the centuries. In 2015, the austerity era chancellor George Osborne announced proudly: “This is an historic moment, and I am delighted to announce that we will complete the repayment of £2.6bn of debt dating back as far as the 18th century.” He noted the decisions he’d taken to “get a grip on the public finances” and that this was “great value for the taxpayer.” Even if they decry borrowing, politicians do like to take credit.
By coincidence, carbon dioxide emissions typically stick around for three centuries. The Industrial Revolution created much wealth, but who considered its legacy? Outgoing US president Joe Biden made great progress in cutting emissions, boosting urban transit and improving traffic safety. Now, who will take the credit when his long-term investments start to pay off? Surely not the one who called Net Zero a “Green Scam”. When you hear the guy say “that’s just hindsight…” you are hearing about a costly failure of foresight.
Both Pitt and Peel found tax innovation painful. Some 20 years ago, Tony Blair abandoned national road pricing in the face of protests. Interestingly, he’s just popped up, urging current PM Sir Keir Starmer to revive the idea – but it seems RUC appears still more toxic than the air it helps to purify. For drivers, the ‘People’s Budget’ translates bread and circuses into fuel duties and potholes, while recovering a transport deficit of (you guessed it) £2.6bn. No green transport revolution yet! Arguably, transport is seen as a Cinderella portfolio, but how do we get it into the Goldilocks zone? Not too hot, not too cold but just right!
Dame Meg Hillier MP chairs the Parliamentary Accounts Committee. Her report, published in September 2024, tells how the £1tn was spent. She finds a yawning gap in the political process, with not much red-teaming in the space between the setting of ‘great plans’ and the blaming for ‘unintended consequences’. The dreams of seesaw politicians can drive successive officeholders to achieve exactly net zero. But, then again, who ever put a value on self-awareness?
Say it loud
We’re indebted to the 2024 CiTTi Awards champions, whose ideas have worked so well. Let us celebrate our successes and then invest in the future – all we need is to match a fraction of the capital raised to satisfy the most costly and painful policies of the past. Finally, we’re still seeking “All the beautiful sounds of the world in a single word.” During this holiday season, the word should be PEACE. Peace buys sustainability. Say it soft and it’s almost a prayer.
This article was originally published in the December 2024 issue of CiTTi Magazine.
Achievements and innovations in transport planning will be recognised and celebrated at the fourth annual CiTTi Awards on 25 November 2025 at De Vere Grand Connaught Rooms in London. Visit www.cittiawards.co.uk to learn more about this unmissable event for the UK’s transportation sector!
